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TMCNet:  Worldwide Telecoms Market Outlook 2019-2024 - Growth in Fixed Broadband & Mobile Handset Revenue Will Drive the Total Telecoms Service Revenue Growth

[February 11, 2020]

Worldwide Telecoms Market Outlook 2019-2024 - Growth in Fixed Broadband & Mobile Handset Revenue Will Drive the Total Telecoms Service Revenue Growth

DUBLIN, Feb. 11, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The "Global Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024" report has been added to's offering.

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The increase in telecoms service revenue worldwide will be driven by growth in mobile handset revenue, with a modest contribution from 5G services, and fixed broadband revenue from developing nations.

Operators are focusing on 5G and next-generation fixed broadband technologies because saturated markets will limit the growth from legacy sources of mobile and fixed revenue.

This report examines telecoms trends on a global and regional level and provides key insights into the future of these markets.

The report and data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the worldwide telecoms markets and for eight regions
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service in each geographical region, and a worldwide summary
  • an overview of operator strategies and region-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-regional comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications, and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

Worldwide totals are refreshed every time any of the regional results are updated.

Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)



  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone,
  • non-smartphone


  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU



  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data


  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

The forecasts are informed by on-the-ground regional market experts from topic-led research programmes and a consulting division, as well as external interviews. In addition to the robust set of historical data, the forecasts draw on a unique and in-house modelling tool, which applies a rigorous methodology (reconciliation of different sources, standard definitions, top-down and bottom-up modelling).

Key Topics Covered

Executive Summary

  • Growth in the global telecoms service revenue will be driven by growth in both the number of fixed broadband connections and mobile handset data revenue
  • Retail revenue growth will be limited or negative in developed regions, but emerging markets' retail revenue will continue to grow at a healthy rate
  • Geographical coverage: the 4G/5G share of mobile connections in North Americ and developed Asia-Pacific will reach 100% by 2024
  • Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • Market context: the telecoms share of GDP ranges from 1.4% in CEE to 2.0% in SSA
  • Key mergers, acquisitions, and market entries
  • Key drivers at a glance for each region
  • Market overview: growth in fixed broadband and mobile handset revenue will drive the total telecoms service revenue growth
  • Mobile: the 5G share of mobile connections will reach 22% worldwide by 2024
  • Mobile: market competition will prevent mobile ARPU from rising during the forecast period, despite the boost due to new 5G connections
  • Mobile: operators will have to find new sources of revenue growth due to saturated markets in developed regions and high levels of mobile competition
  • Fixed: the FTTP/B share of fixed broadband connections will increase from 56% in 2019 to 64% in 2024
  • Fixed: North America will be the only region with significant fixed broadband ASPU growth due to its limited market competition
  • Fixed: fixed broadband penetration will continue to grow in developing regions; operators in developed markets will focus on the consumer experience
  • Specialist business services: revenue from all segments of business services will grow during the forecast period; IT service providers will dominate the market
  • IoT: the total number of IoT connections worldwide will grow sevenfold between 2018 and 2028 to reach 5.3 billion
  • Pay-TV: growth in pay-TV revenue will primarily be driven by OTT video services as revenue from traditional pay-TV will begin to decline

Individual Country Forecasts

  • Western Europe: the total revenue will remain flat due to declining revenue from legacy services and intense competition in the mobile market
  • Western Europe: blended mobile ARPU will increase marginally, thanks to growing data usage and customers' migration to contract plans
  • Western Europe: the total telecoms service revenue will grow only slightly because only the fixed broadband market offers potential for significant revenue growth
  • Western Europe: forecast changes
  • Central and Eastern Europe: telecoms service revenue growth will be driven by the demand for data and the monetisation of network investments
  • Central and Eastern Europe: mobile ARPU will increase, stimulated by LTE expansions and the associated increase in mobile data usage
  • Central and Eastern Europe: total revenue growth will be driven by a rise in the number of mobile contract subscriptions and increasing fixed broadband coverage
  • Central and Eastern Europe: forecast changes
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific: both mobile and fixed service revenue will continue to grow as penetration increases
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific: monthly data consumption per connection will more than triple during 2019-2024
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific: rising levels of competition and regulatory pressure will limit the growth in mobile ARPU and fixed broadband ASPU
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific: forecast changes
  • Developed Asia-Pacific: fixed broadband, IoT and business services revenue will grow, but not by enough to offset declines in legacy services
  • Developed Asia-Pacific: the take-up of 5G services in DVAP will be rapid thanks to favourable demand-side conditions
  • Developed Asia-Pacific: operators will focus on rolling out NGA networks and 5G services
  • Developed Asia-Pacific: forecast changes
  • Middle East and North Africa: the fast adoption of fixed broadband and mobile data services will help to maintain service revenue growth
  • Middle East and North Africa: mobile services will account for most of the telecoms revenue in the region, driven by the fast migration from 3G to 4G
  • Middle East and North Africa: monetising high-speed internet and mobile data access will be crucial to achieving telecoms retail revenue growth
  • Middle East and North Africa: forecast changes
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: mobile revenue will be the dominant contributor to the total telecoms revenue growth, but fixed broadband revenue will also grow strongly
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: the prepaid share of mobile connections will remain above 95%; this will play a role in keeping the ARPU low
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: SSA is a highly mobile-centric region with a strong potential for fixed broadband revenue growth
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: forecast changes
  • Latin America: mobile handset, fixed broadband and pay-TV revenue will be the main drivers of telecoms retail revenue growth in Latin America
  • Latin America: 4G and 5G will account for a majority of the mobile connections in Latin America by 2024
  • Latin America: fixed broadband revenue will account for the majority of the total telecoms retail revenue, driven by expansions in-network coverage
  • Latin America: forecast changes
  • North America: a lack of competition will allow both mobile and fixed service revenue to continue to grow
  • North America: the number of 5G connections will grow rapidly, thanks to early market launch in the USA
  • North America: fixed broadband will be the main driver of the total telecoms revenue growth, thanks to growth in both ARPU and household penetration
  • North America: forecast changes

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